Each year, there are a plethora of players in every sport that will approach some key milestones or record breaking numbers. Ass the saying goes, records are made to be broken. Which ones are on the radar is the near future is a matter of answering a few questions and taking look at the lay of the land. The 2023 NFL season has its fair share of things to keep an eye on. For a modern day quarterback, aside from the elusive Super Bowl ring, passing yards are considered a huge measuring stick.
Atop the list of all-time passing yards is Tom Brady, who presumably has retired, with 89,214 yards. Drew Brees, who retired after the 2020 season, is the only other player north of the 80,000 yard passing mark with 80,358. Much like the 80K Club, there are only two with over 70,000 passing yards. Both are Hall of Famers with Peyton Manning and Bret Favre taking the honors throwing 71,940 and 71,838 career yards respectively.
Matt Ryan, who was released by the Indianapolis Colts in March, then subsequently hired by CBS Sports as an analyst, sits at 7th all-time just 1,296 yards away from Phillip Rivers. Like that of Brady, he has likely played his last game in the NFL. But if a team comes calling and Ryan accepts the offer, the milestone watch for him will certainly be in the cards.
Among the current quarterbacks, there are the veterans Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford in that particular order among the active passing yards leaders. With the expanded schedule, players like Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr and Ryan Tannehill all have a chance to eclipse significant passing yards milestones during the 2023 season. Other key passing yards milestones could be passed by the younger stars within the first couple weeks with Jared Goff, Zac Prescott and Patrick Mahomes.
In all likelihood, the all time Top 10 career passing yards list after 2023, will see a significant facelift.
9. Aaron Rodgers – 59,055
There is a chance that in Week 3 against New England, Aaron Rodgers will become the 9th player in NFL history to eclipse the 60K mark. Barring anything drastic, and if the Jets do turn the tables on the AFC East, Rodgers should pass Dan Marino for 8th overall by late October or early November. If it happens in early November the Jets will have back to back prime time games against the Chargers and Raiders. The newly minted Jets quarterback is just 2,306 yards away from Marino’s mark.
11. Matthew Stafford – 52,082
The chance of Matthew Stafford reaching 60K club is a bit of reach considering he has 7,918 yards to go to reach that mark. If he can get healthy, there is a chance he can get within striking distance of Eli Manning for #10 all time for the 2024 season. Eli has a career mark of 57,023 yards. There is also the question of retirement looming over the head of Stafford given his injury and concussion issues to date.
19. Joe Flacco – 42,320
The Joe Flacco story certainly is an interesting one to say the least. At the present time, he is a free agent and very well could be the #1 eligible quarterback on the speed dial for a number of teams in case of a need at the position. Could he retire in 2023? Flacco sits in 19th place, just 720 yards away from Hall of Famer Dan Fouts. If given an opportunity, there are quite a few names that could be within striking distance.
21. Russell Wilson – 40,583
Within the first two weeks of the season, Russell Wilson could find himself surpassing Kerry Collins on the list, but that’s not all. If Flacco doesn’t play in 2023, he should leapfrog and Dan Fouts on the list towards the final stretch of games in the season. If the numbers are good, Drew Bledsoe at 44,611 is also a possible scenario. We should not expect that much, but the possibility is out there for Wilson.
24. Andy Dalton – 38,150
The good news for Andy Dalton is that he is less than 2,000 yards passing from reaching the 40K club. If he does, he could be the 24th player in NFL history to reach that mark. The bad news for Andy Dalton is that he is now the back up for rookie Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers. If Young falls apart or gets injured, the Panthers will have a reliable person in the saddle for them.
28. Kirk Cousins – 37,140
The footnote to Andy Dalton could be what happens with Kirk Cousins. He is in the final year of his deal with the Minnesota Vikings so there is that. A virtual put or shut up year for him this season. Cousins is only 1,010 yards away from Dalton on the list and if Dalton does not play in the first four weeks, it will likely be Cousins sitting ahead of Dalton. With that, Cousins should pass Donovan McNabb (37,276) in the first week, Boomer Esiason (37,920) and Dave Kreig (38,147) in the third or fourth week. The irony of the schedule is that the Vikings will be at Andy Dalton’s Carolina Panthers in Week 4.
32. Derek Carr – 35,222
Expectations of Derek Carr point towards proving the Las Vegas Raiders wrong after they released him. Getting a deal from the New Orleans Saints should give him a chance to show the world that he is not done just yet. Getting to the 40K club might be a bit of a stretch, but if he gets close, it might be at the tail end of the 2023 season or early in the 2024 season. With ease, he should pass Jim Kelly (35,467), Alex Smith (35,650) and Matt Hasselbeck (36,638) within the first half of the season.
41. Ryan Tannehill – 33,265
Much like Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill should begin to climb up the list with ease over the course of the season. There is no chance that he will reach the 40K club this season, the where and when for 2024 plays largely into how productive he can be in 2023. About two-thirds of the way through the 2023 season, it is expected that he will be around the #30 mark where Derek Carr currently sits.
The best of the rest… including Mahomes, Prescott
Outside of Tannehill, the next significant active quarterbacks on the all-time passing yards list are Jared Goff, Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes. For obvious reasons, Prescott and Mahomes will likely have bigger numbers in a combined passing and rushing category.
Sitting at #74 with 25,854 yards is Goff. Throwing around the same numbers as he did in 2022 will put him in the low 50’s on the list by the end of the year and it is very likely he could be flirting with the 30K club by that time. Dak Prescott is at #80 with only 57 yards left to go for the 25K club. It is a foregone conclusion we will see him eclipse that mark in the first quarter of the Cowboys opener against the Giants on NBC’s Sunday Night Football.
Patrick Mahomes is currently at 24,241 passing yards, 759 yards away from the 25K mark. The expectation is that Mahomes should pass that mark in either week two at Jacksonville or at home against the Bears in week three.
